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The next two sections touch on two such examples. When you consider the advantage that NBA teams get from playing on their home court, it takes a decent gap in talent and ability for a road team to be deemed a favorite on the betting market.
A great time to pounce on such teams is when they are coming off a bad loss. The exact opposite of the trend above, being an underdog at home generally means that you are a step below your opposition. Being a home dog of 10 points or more means that the disparity in talent and power rating is sizable.
No team wants to get blown out on their home court. To take the information discussed in the section above a step further, general trends can almost always be broken down into team-specific trends. In some cases, you might find that a given team is even better than the leaguewide average when it comes to a specific trend. Other times, a team may not exhibit any evidence of a trend at all when their numbers are parsed out from the general data. Examples of team ATS and totals trends can be found in the two images below.
While the data can be useful when considered in its generic form alone, handicappers can take things a step further and sort a specific trend category based on situational factors. Note the list of specific situations under which a trend might occur in the image below. As the sections on situational strategies and trends have alluded to above, the best way to advance your NBA handicapping is to do your research.
With that said, there are some other NBA betting strategies that, when deployed correctly, can help you gain a tactical advantage over the sportsbooks. This section provides an overview of three such strategies. Betting with their heart instead of their head gets many public bettors into trouble.
In the NBA, fan loyalties can be for individual players just as much as teams. You might find opportunities to go against the grain that are related to either case. While betting against the public does not mean that you are guaranteed to win, basic logic makes it a good strategy.
If the sportsbooks were consistently losing money to the large swaths of public bettors, how would they stay in business? By fading the public, you essentially align yourself with the casino, who as we all know, always has the odds in its favor. By definition, line shading refers to when a bookmaker anticipates heavy betting action on one side of a matchup and consequently moves an opening betting line towards that side.
This phenomenon can occur across several different sports, including the NBA. The image below details an example of what might cause a shaded NBA line. Favorites and the over on totals are the most common places where shaded lines will arise. When you come across a shaded line, the value play is almost always going to lead you to bet against it. Sharp bettors should not hesitate to pounce on the free advantage granted to the opposing side.
Essentially, betting against shaded lines is similar to fading the public. The only difference is that the sportsbook is aiding in the cause to keep their handle balanced. Remember that line shading can be as dramatic as adding a point or two, or as minuscule as simply inflating the juice from to Trust your process and take advantage of shaded NBA lines wherever possible.
Sometimes, merely watching the early stages of an NBA game can provide a great idea of how it will ultimately play out. With this in mind, live betting should not be ruled out of your handicapping equation. Where traditional game wagers lock at tip-off, you can wager as you watch through live betting. Keep in mind that the lines will constantly be updated to reflect the progression of the game. While finding the best value on in-play lines can be challenging, the option is great for situations when you can benefit from seeing the two teams on the court together before placing a wager.
It can be a great way to diagnose team energy levels, how a player looks returning from injury, and any other number of factors that can be helpful in placing a knowledgeable wager. Once a strong basic understanding of NBA handicapping has been established, there are several advanced strategies to utilize to improve your chances of success. Situational strategies that involve digging into team schedules and identifying key storylines and narratives around a particular game requires diligent research but can prove very rewarding.
Well, I have it. Are you ready? Drumroll, please. The secret to betting the NBA is that there is no secret. Gambling is hard. There are no psychics. That said,the best piece single piece of advice on your path to sports betting like a professional bettor comes from the legendary Vegas bookmaker, Jimmy Vaccaro:. The majority of bettors find teams that they like and bet them to win — regardless of the price, i.
Professional bettors consider all 30 teams viable options to select for a wager on any given day — if and only if the price — i. The worst team in the league is a good bet if it is being underpriced by the market. The best team in the league is a bad bet if they are being overpriced by the market on any particular game. The most basic types of bets found at every sportsbook and online sportsbook.
A moneyline bet is the most straight forward type of wager. A player picks the team they think is going to win and bets against the moneyline odds. In this case, team A is a considerable favorite about a 5-point favorite on the spread — more on that later. Team B is the underdog. When you bet the spread, you are betting on the margin of victory. Either you will need a team to win by a certain number of points or more or will need a team to win or only lose by a certain number of points.
If you think this trend implies that one should automatically bet the Over, you have a lot to learn about the betting market. Bookies — and your fellow bettors — are keenly aware of these trends and set their numbers accordingly. Whereas four years ago, it would not be uncommon to see a total of or Nowadays the typical total is between and There are a number of variations on the Totals bet. The most common is betting on each team total.
For example, you can bet on whether the total points scored in the 1st quarter will be over or under a certain number. Similarly, you can bet if an underdog will be within a certain number of points as the favorite at halftime. In-game wagering takes this same type of derivative bet to another level, but the same basic rules apply. A new total and a new spread are generated after each play. So they are more implicitly difficult — but with the right preparation and understanding of the teams, they can be very profitable investments.
They can also be used as hedges against pregame wagers. A parlay bet is when two or more bets are combined. It is the equivalent of making a wager on a game, winning, and then taking the entirety of those winnings and your original investment and putting it all on another wager. If ALL of the sides on your parlay bet win, you can get a major plus-money payout. However, if ANY of the teams lose, your parlay bet lost, and you lose the entirety of your wager. A player proposition is a wager on a statistic of a specific player or players.
In this case, if he scores 23 or more, you cash your ticket. Other player proposition may include statistics such as rebounds, assists, free throws, and more or a combination thereof. Professional bettors will often play players props in games where they do not see a value in the Spread or Total. A game prop is a wager relating to specific events that may unfold during a game. For example, you can bet which team will be the first to score 10 points.
You can also bet whether there will be Over or Under X amount of 3-point shots made combined between the two teams. The reason for this is that having more Outs greatly increases your chance of getting the best number. For example, You live in LA, and you feel that the Lakers are underrated by the market, and you think they will keep it close against the Celtics on a given night.
You check your local sportsbook, and you see the spread is 8 points in favor of the Celtics. Meanwhile, your friend in New Jersey — where there are more Celtics supporters — goes to his local sportsbook and sees that the Celtics are favored by 8. That extra half point made all the difference. Although it may seem like a longshot that a game will end exactly on the spread number, it happens more than you think. As you progress as a bettor, you will notice tendencies between different sportsbooks — what types of bettors they serve — and will be able to use that information to quickly find the best number for any given game.
If you live in Nevada you will have multiple outs available to you with relative ease. There are a litany of unique sports books where you can shop for the best spread or total number. You will find that some books cater to professional or sharp bettors, and some books cater more to recreational bettors or square bettors — you can use this information to find the best number for any given wager.
At time of writing this guide, there are seven other states that have legalized sports betting — and this number is poised to increase quickly in the near future. Although there may be one or two physical Sportsbooks established so far in these states, it is always a benefit to have a local option that might have a better number on some games than online options.
In established states such as New Jersey, there are over 10 online sportsbooks to shop odds and spread your bankroll around. The majority of people at the moment do not have access to local sportsbooks, but anybody with an internet connection has access to online or offshore sportsbooks. Some of the most common ones are Bovada largest , 5dimes, Betonline. What some may not know is that all the offshore sportsbooks are illegal in the US.
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It certainly helps that league commissioner Adam Siler has embraced NBA betting as a way to engage fans and increase viewership. Betting on the NBA is very similar to the NFL as the majority of bets are on the point spread and the total number of points scored in a game. Bettors can also bet on the moneyline where they simply pick a winner regardless of by how many points. There are a number of things that NBA bettors can do to improve their overall winning percentage. Here are some tips that any NBA bettor can put to use to win more bets.
When deriving odds, oddsmakers will typically build in a three-point home-court advantage. The betting public loves home teams and oddsmakers know that. Lines are often shaded toward the home team and the casual bettor will end up taking an overpriced number. This season, most venues have yet to allow fans making home-court advantage even less of a thing. As a result, bettors can find greater value when they buy low on road teams. In addition to home teams, the betting public loves favorites.
It does make sense. Because the public loves home favorites, bettors can often find more value in betting on road underdogs. Bettors that can find the right road dog have been pretty successful this season. The away underdog is against the spread so far this season. They have also been a road underdog nine times this season. Their record so far is ATS. Find teams like the Bulls and the Thunder that play well on the road.
Just like home teams and favorites, the betting public also loves Overs. The casual bettor is a fan of the game that wants to see excitement, which is really code for a high-scoring game that is fun to watch. Again, sportsbooks are completely aware of this and will shade numbers toward Overs.
The best Under bets are on divisional games. Teams in the same division play each other four times per season. This is because those leagues use a playoff format when it comes to home and away games. The higher seeded team plays at home for the first two games, as well as the 5th and 7th, if necessary.
The zig zag theory works on two main concepts. First, home teams have a real advantage. Second, when a team is coming off a loss they generally play harder and have a statistically better chance of winning. The zig zag theory works best when a team is at home AND coming off a loss.
There are several betting systems out there that proclaim to have a secret recipe for foolproof winning. Of course, if they really worked then everyone would be rich and casinos and sportsbooks would be bankrupt. Compared to the Martingale system which only requires your last bet to win, this system needs your overall winning percentage to out-number your losses. If you lose a bet, add the number of units you bet to the end of the sequence.
When you win, cross out the first and last numbers in the sequence. Continue until all numbers in the sequence have been crossed out. The truth is, none of these systems can guarantee a win, even if they promise to do just that. One of the most important things both savvy punters and oddsmakers utilize is data and trend analysis software. These days there are several online options that offer these services for free or for a low fee. It takes a bit of work to learn to use them at first but once you learn how to use these tools they can be an absolute game-changer for your results.
Not only can you figure out how the most common trends are calculated and used, but you can also explore your own trend ideas and potentially find edges that have eluded the sportsbooks and other bettors. You never know what you might find. Perhaps NHL road underdogs, after long homestands, who start their back up goalie in the first game of a back-to-back are much more likely to cover the puckline.
It may seem random, but with data analysis tools you can find real trends that can help guide your bets. For example, over the past 13 seasons the underdog has covered the spread It measures how teams perform against the point spread, not just against their opponents. That is an incredible stat to ponder. It makes it seem that no matter what strategy you employ, your point spread bet is a coin toss.
That extra three percent represents a massive difference for your bottom line so look for those opportunities. One advanced strategy punters use at the start of a new NFL season is the Pythagorean wins strategy, which is a name you might remember from math class in school. It takes into account the amount of points scored by a team and compares it to the number of points scored against them. Amazingly, from to the Super Bowl was won 11 out of 16 times by the team that had the highest Pythagorean wins stat, not just the most outright victories.
Instead of doing the math yourself, you can find the stats for all teams posted at the beginning of the season. You can also find free calculators online that will do the math for you. This is just one example of a more advanced strategy used to wager on the NFL. In basketball, one advanced strategy we really like is going against the grain and betting against the public.
This works especially well with point totals and teams that put up big numbers at home. The common bettor will remember how a team performs at home, how quick their pace of play is, how many points they give up to the opposition, and then simply bet the same way the next time that team plays at home. This means you can often get a great price betting the underdog or the under on totals in these spots. This works especially well when both teams have had busy workloads or are on the tail end of a back-to-back.
Check if your state has legal NBA betting on our guide. Statistics have shown that when a total is higher 8. This is also a viable option when the underdog has lost their previous game and the public is swayed by a small sample size and the odds have increased. For more on baseball betting strategy, check out our full guide on how to bet on the MLB. Check if your state has legal MLB betting.
There are lots of reasons hockey is a great sport for more advanced betting strategies. There are also lots of edges for gamblers willing to put in the work. One common example is that the betting public for hockey tends to put too much weight on home ice advantage. This creates excellent value for those willing to bet on the road underdog. For more hockey betting tips and strategies, read our full guide on how to bet on the NHL.
The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to calculate how much to bet when the odds are in your favor. Obviously, in sports betting, it is going to be difficult to know the precise probability of success or failure of an event. However, with research and solid deduction we can make some reasonable guesses and then apply the Kelly Criterion to see how much of our bankroll to bet.
Say, for example, that you think the chances of Rafael Nadal beating Roger Federer on Clay are , and the decimal odds available at your sportsbook are 1. Some are great quality while others might steer you far wide of your target. The information you gather along the way is really what matters most.
As we stated above, it is best to be a master of one field than an average Joe across the board. Find your niche and then develop or employ strategies that work best for that sport and for the teams or players you know best. Risk-free betting offers are also a crucial decision-making point when it comes to deciding which sportsbook you want to open an account with.
Risk-free betting offers can double the number of bets you can make with your first bet. It pays to learn about risk-free betting offer so check out our guide on risk-free betting offers. For more information on the current sports betting laws in every state, check out our comprehensive guide to US legal sports betting. Check out our crash course in betting odds to get up to speed. Bet the underdog — One of the most common edges you can find is when a popular team is overhyped.
Bet the underdog for better value and a bigger payout. If one team is too restricting, at least limit yourself to betting on just one league. Ride Winning Streaks Team and player performance in sports can be really streaky. Hedging Your Bets There are opportunities in sports betting where a punter can make a bet that is opposite to his original bet. In both these examples you can bet against your original wager and lock in a profit, regardless of the final outcome.
Hedging lets you sacrifice a larger potential payout in exchange for reduced risk and a guaranteed profit. By making your hedge bet larger or smaller you can play with how much risk and reward you want to take. Betting the Middle This process, also known as middling, is when a punter makes an early point spread bet only to see the line move later.
This can happen for a few different reasons including too much action being placed on the underdog by the betting public or by things like injuries or other player factors.